中国利率市场化改革面临的困境探析

    本篇论文目录导航：

【题目】中国利率市场化改革面临的困境探析 
【第一章】阻碍我国利率市场化进程的因素研究导论 
【第二章】利率市场化的理论分析 
【第三章】利率市场化进程的国际经验分析 
【第四章】中国利率市场化改革的实践分析 
【第五章】利率市场化改革深化中的问题与对策 
【结论/参考文献】推进我国利率市场化进程途径研究结论与参考文献 



　　摘 要

　　第二次世界大战以及 20 世纪 30 年代的美国经济危机，给全球经济带来了沉重的打击。各国金融市场混乱，问题层出不穷。经济的衰退直接影响到国家政局的稳定。因此，为了稳定本国政治局势，恢复经济建设，大多数国家都采取了严格的金融管制政策。

　　上世纪 70 年代，麦金农和肖的“金融抑制理论”与“金融深化理论”指出，政府对金融的严格管制，虽然在一定时期，对经济有保障作用，但是从长远意义上来讲，会抑制经济的发展，因此，启发人们冲破束缚，要求金融深化。同时，伴随着各国以及各地区经济的恢复与发展，尤其是全球经济一体化进程的加快，国家对经济的过度干预，对金融市场的严格管制，已经不能适应当代经济的发展形势，各种问题也渐渐地凸显出来。在 20 世纪最后二十年中，大部分国家和地区都加入利率市场化改革的行列，逐步放松对本国（地区）金融市场的严格管制，金融自由化的浪潮在全球蔓延。

　　利率市场化作为金融自由化的核心部分，被各个国家和地区所格外重视。不同发展水平的国家和地区都在努力寻找适合自身利率市场化演变的路径。但是在这众多改革的国家和地区中，有的取得了成功，有效的促进本国（地区）经济的发展，但也有一些国家和地区，由于采取的措施不当，没能够成功的转型，成为失败的案例。例如，美国和台湾的利率市场化改革就是成功的典范。由于长期以来，严格的金融管制已经不适应金融市场的发展，导致美国和台湾经济发展速度减缓，于是，它们在本地区宏观经济比较稳定的状态下，采取适当的措施，逐步放松对利率市场的严格管制，最终成功完成了利率市场化改革的目标。但是，相反的是，智利政府的利率市场化改革，恰恰是在本国政治、经济局势动荡的背景下进行的。另外，由于激进式的改革方式，导致智利经济剧烈波动，已经超越政府管控的范围，最终促使其改革的失败。从这些改革成功和失败的案例中，我们从中得出一些经验和教训。利率市场化改革并不是一蹴而就的，需要立足国情，在稳定的宏观背景下，逐步推进。这些启示，对我国今后的利率市场化改革大有帮助。

　　从 1996 年开始，我国也开始了对利率市场化路径的探索。首先选择以同业拆借市场为突破口，然后逐步对银行间债券市场、票据市场和存贷款利率市场进行利率市场化改革。最终在 2013 年，央行实现了对贷款利率下限的放开，标志着我国利率市场化改革的基本完成。然而，我们也要看到，在这将近十年的改革过程中，虽然取得了利率市场化改革的基本成功，但是也遭受到各种问题的阻碍，例如，商业银行短期经营困难，利率市场化改革对商业银行的冲击，商业银行在取得自主定价权之后，自主定价能力比较低，金融创新能力不足等问题。除此之外，自从中国加入 WTO 以后，与世界联系更加紧密，国际参与度也越来越高。虽然，在世界市场上，我国取得了显着成绩，提高了国际竞争力，但是也面临不少挑战。尤其是，随着中国经济的蓬勃发展，一些国家和地区在一定程度上给与制约，阻碍了我国利率市场化进程。针对这些影响因素，我国政府不畏艰难，通过制定各种宏观经济政策，间接调节金融市场，积极迎接国际挑战，深化了我国利率市场化改革。

　　虽然，贷款利率下限管制的解除，标志着我国利率市场化基本完成，但是并没有完全实现。存款利率的市场化尚未开放，这一直都是各国（或各地区）改革的难点，我国也不例外。面对今后的改革道路，我们应当吸取其它地区改革的经验和教训，同时，还要从我国已完成的改革中，总结成功经验。面对问题，冷静思考，积极寻求解决的办法和途径。在稳定的宏观经济背景下，循序渐进的推进我国利率市场化进程。

　　关键词：金融自由化，国际经验，中国利率市场化，对策

　　Abstract

　　The Second World War and the American Economic Crisis in 1930s had brought a heavy blow to theglobal economy. The financial markets all over the world were in a mess and problems never stoppedrising. The economic recession had a direct impact on the stability of politics. In order to stabilize thepolitical situation and recover the economical construction, most of the countries had chosen the very strictfinancial regulation policy.

　　In the 70s of the last century, Mackinnon and Shaw's “Financial Repression Theory” and “FinancialRestraint Theory” pointed out that the strict control of finance from the government would benefit theeconomic development in a certain period of time but it would restrain the development in the long term.

　　Therefore, people were encouraged to break the shackles and required to deepen the reform in financialfield. Mea nwhile, with the economic recovery in all countries and ar eas, especially with the rapi dprogress of global economic integration, the excessive intervention and the strict control of financial marketfrom government could not adapt to the economic development trend and a lot of problems were showingup gradually. From 1980s to 1990s, the majority of countries and areas joined the reforms of interest rateliberalization and loosened the strict control of their financial markets. The trend of financial deregulationwas spreading worldwide.

　　As the core part of financial liberalization, all countries and areas paid high attention to the interestrate liberalization. Countries in different levels of economic development were trying hard to find their ownpaths to interest rate liberalization. But among many countries with reforms, some took measures toaccelerate the development of their economy successfully while some became the examples for failure totransform according to unsuitable measures. For example, the reforms of interest rate liberalization in theUS and Taiwan of China were the successful models. Under the strict control of financial market which could notadapt to the financial market development trend, the US and Taiwan of China suffered the deceleration of economydevelopment. So the government in both areas took suitable measures to loosen the control to the interestrate market gradually as the general economic situation was stable. Finally they finished their goals ofeconomic reforms, the interest rate liberalization successfully. On the contrary, the government of Chilestarted the reform of interest rate liberalization with the background of turbulence in politics and economy.

　　At the same time, the government of Chile chose the radical reform mode which was out of thegovernment's control. In the end, the reform failed without any doubt. From these successful and failingcases, we learnt some experience as well as the lessons. W e got to know that the interest rateliberalization could not be completed within one day. However, the reform should move forward step bystep under the stable general political and economic situation with full c onsideration of p olitics andeconomy.

　　From 1996, China started to explore our own ways to interest rate liberalization. Our governmentchose to start from the inter-bank market as the first step. Then the reform was implemented gradually tointer -bank bond market, bill market and deposit and loan interest rate market. Finally in 2013, the centralbank decided not to control the minimum load interest which showed general completion of the interest rateliberalization reform in our country. However, we need to know that the general success of the reform hadbeen slowed down by many problems in recent 10 years. Such as the shock to commercial banks due to thereform of interest rate liberalization gave the commercial banks a hard time to operate in a short term, theability of pricing kept low after getting the power to price, the innovation competence was not enough andso on. Besides, China had a closer connection to other countries and played a more and more importantrole in international activities since we joined WTO. Though we had a significant performance andenhanced our international competitiveness in the worldwide market, we still face lots of challenges. Withthe rapid development of China's economy, some countries and areas give us some barriers to a certainextent which obstructs the progress of our interest rate liberalization. Aiming at these influencing factors,our government is fearless to make various macroeconomic policies to regulate the financial market inorder to face the international challenges positively and deepen our interest rate liberalization reformwithout any hesitation.

　　Even though relieving the control of minimum load interest shows the general completion of ourinterest rate liberalization, the interest rate liberalization is still not finished. The full completion ofinterest rate liberalization keeps being the hardest part for reforms in all countries and areas, includingChina. Considering the further ways to our interest rate liberalization reform, we should learn lessons andthe experience from other countries and areas. Also, we need to summarize our previous successfulexperience and learn from it. We need to be calm when we face problems and actively seek for the ways tosolve them. Only in this way can we accelerate the progress of our interest rate liberalization under thestable macroeconomic background.

　　KEY WORDS: global f inancial liberalization, international experience, China's interest rateliberalization, countermeasure

　　目 录

　　摘 要

　　Abstract

　　目 录

　　第一章 导论

　　一、选题的背景意义

　　二、利率市场化的内涵界定

　　三、利率市场化文献综述

　　（一）国外利率市场化的文献综述

　　（二）中国利率市场化的文献综述

　　四、研究内容与研究方法

　　（一）研究基本内容

　　（二）分析方法

　　五、创新与不足

　　（一）创新之处

　　（二）不足之处与进一步研究方向

　　第二章 利率市场化的理论分析

　　一、利率市场化：金融抑制理论向金融约束理论的过渡

　　（一）McKinnon 和 Shaw 的金融抑制理论与金融深化理论

　　（二）Herman 与 Stiglitz 的金融约束理论

　　二、影响利率市场化的因素

　　三、利率市场化条件

　　（一）发达的金融市场和恰当的市场模式

　　（二）稳定的宏观经济

　　（三）完善的金融监管

　　第三章 利率市场化进程的国际经验分析

　　一、美国、台湾、智利利率市场化进程

　　（一）美国利率市场化进程

　　（二）台湾利率市场化进程

　　（三）智利利率市场化进程

　　二、各国及地区利率市场化改革的启示

　　（一）积极的财务状况和良好的宏观经济形势是利率市场化改革的基础

　　（二）利率市场化改革的成败与否，途径的选取尤为重要

　　（三）寻找改革突破口与步骤的安排是利率市场化改革能否成功的关键因素

　　（四）利率市场化改革要以货币市场的发展为主阵地

　　（五）市场化改革促进商业银行的金融创新

　　（六）国家有责任搭建监管体系，以合理的方式加强金融监管

　　第四章 中国利率市场化改革的实践分析

　　一、我国利率市场化改革背景

　　二、中国利率市场化改革探索

　　（一）同业拆借利率市场化

　　（二）金融机构间债券市场利率市场化

　　（三）票据市场利率市场化

　　（四）存贷款利率市场化

　　第五章 我国利率市场化改革深化中的问题与对策

　　一、阻碍我国利率市场化进程的因素

　　（一）商业银行短期经营困难

　　（二）金融监管面临挑战

　　（三）金融业务模式陈旧，金融产品定价能力低

　　（四）利率风险加重，有可能造成金融机构之间的恶性竞争

　　（五）金融全球化的挑战

　　（六）民众风险意识淡薄，增加政府负担

　　二、顺利推进我国利率市场化的应对策略

　　（一）深化企业改革，完善金融企业制度

　　（二）逐步完善我国的金融监管体系

　　（三）加强金融创新，提高定价能力

　　（四）建立良好规范的竞争机制

　　（五）营造良好的宏观经济环境

　　（六）提高公众风险意识，积极引导理性投资

　　结 论

　　参考文献

　　致 谢