人口红利对城乡收入的作用探析

    本篇论文目录导航：

【题目】人口红利对城乡收入的作用探析  
【第一章】人口红利下城乡收入问题探究绪论 
【第二章】城乡收入差距的测定方法及人口红利影响 
【第三章】人口红利期我国城乡收入差距现状分析
【第四章】人口红利对我国城乡收入差距的实证分析 
【结论/参考文献】基于人口红利的城乡收入差距研究结论与参考文献 

　　摘 要

　　从新中国成立以来，我国的人口结构经历了两次变化，伴随着人口结构的变化，我国现有的人口年龄结构呈现出低抚养比和高劳动参与率的现状。根据瑞典1957 年人口生命表中对人口红利期的规定，以 14 岁及以下作为少儿人口、65岁及以上作为老年人口。在人口年龄结构中，当人口总抚养比小于 50%的时候，该地区就进入人口红利期。我国自 1993 年进入人口红利期以来，经济依旧维持着高速发展，但是城乡收入差距却不断的扩大。从 1993 年至今，城乡居民收入差从 1665.8 元上升到 16648.14 元，城乡居民收入比从 2.80 倍提高到了 3.10倍。为了社会的和谐稳定，城乡共享人口红利，缩小城乡收入差距已迫在眉睫。

　　本文通过研究现有相关人口红利的理论及其相关概念，从人口红利的两个显着特征，高劳动参与率和总抚养比的下降分析对城乡收入差距的影响途径进行理论分析。依据理论分析，以中国 1993-2012 年的第二三产业总比重、城乡人力资本投资差异和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据，构建 VECM 模型。实证结果表明，城乡收入差距在长期受到产业结构的变动和城乡人力资本投资差异的共同作用；在滞后期内，第二三产业总比重的增加导致城乡收入差距的缩小，而城乡人力资本投资差异的扩大将导致城乡收入差距扩大。

　　最后，得以证明出实证结果与理论分析途径相吻合，将二者相结合，应该在人口红利期及以后，通过优化产业结构升级转型和减少城乡人力资本投资差异来缩小我国城乡收入差距。据此，结合我国现有国情，提出相关政策建议四点：增加政府对农业的支持，提高农民收入水平；消除制度障碍，统一城乡劳动力市场；加快产业结构升级，发展现代服务业；增加农村人力资本投资，提高农村劳动生产率。

　　关键词：人口红利；城乡收入差距；政策建议

　　Abstract

　　Since the foundation of new China, it's population structure has changed twice.

　　Along with the change of population structure, a low dependency ratio and high laborparticipation rate have appeared in our country's population age structure. Accordingto Swedish population life table, which stipulated the demographic period, childrenunder 14 years old are regarded as underage population and people at the age of 65 orover 65 are regarded as elderly population. In the population age structure, when totaldependency ratio is less than 50%,the region goes into the demographic period. Sinceour country went into demographic period in 1993,the economy has been developingrapidly ,but the income gap between urban and rural areas has been enlarged. Since1993, the income gap between urban and rural residents has risen from 1665.8 yuan to16648.14 yuan, the income ratio of urban and rural residents increased to 3.10 timesfrom 2.80 times. For the sake of social harmony and stability, it is extremely urgentthat urban and rural areas share the demographic dividend , and that the income gapbetween urban and rural areas should be narrowed.

　　By studying the present related theory of demographic period and it's concept,this paper puts forward theoretical hypothesis from the two significant characteristicsof demographic dividend---high labor participation rate and decreasing totaldependency ratio. According to theoretical hypothesis , VECM model is built byusing the time series data of the total proportion of secondary and tertiary industry,the urban-rural human capital investment difference and the urban-rural income gapfrom 1993 to 2012 in China. The empirical results show that the change of industrialstructure and the difference of urban-rural human capital investment all affect theurban-rural income gap. In the lag period, the increase of the total proportion ofsecondary and tertiary industry will narrow the gap between urban and rural areaswhile the expansion of urban-rural human capital investment difference will widenthe income gap between urban and rural areas.

　　Finally, in order to prove that the empirical results coincide with theoreticalanalysis, combining the two, should be in the demographic dividend period and so on,by optimizing the industrial structure upgrading transformation and reduce the urbanand rural human capital investment difference to narrow the income gap betweenurban and rural areas in China. On this basis, combining with the national conditions,the following four relevant policy suggestions are put forward: increasing governmentsupport for agriculture and increasing farmers' income level; eliminating theinstitutional obstacles and unifying urban and rural labor market; Speeding up theupgrading of industrial structure and developing labor-intensive industries; Increasingthe rural human capital investment and improving labor productivity in thecountryside.

　　Key words: Demographic dividend; the urban-rural income gap; Policy Suggestions

    目录

　　摘 要

　　Abstract

　　1 绪论

　　1.1 研究背景与意义

　　1.2 国内外研究现状

　　1.3 研究框架与研究方法

　　1.4 本文的创新点与不足

　　2 相关基本概念、理论及研究假设

　　2.1 相关基本概念

　　2.1.1 人口年龄结构

　　2.1.2 人口抚养比

　　2.1.3 人口红利及人口红利期

　　2.2 城乡收入差距的测定方法

　　2.3 人口红利对城乡收入差距的影响途径

　　2.3.1 高劳动参与率对城乡收入差距的影响

　　2.3.2 总抚养比下降对城乡收入差距的影响

　　3? 人口红利期我国城乡收入差距现状分析

　　3.1 我国人口红利期的判定

　　3.2 我国人口红利期的特征

　　3.3 人口红利期我国城乡收入差距现状及变动趋势

　　4? 人口红利对我国城乡收入差距的实证分析

　　4.1 实证模型构建

　　4.2 相关数据选择与说明

　　4.3 实证分析结果与结论

　　4.3.1 单位根检验

　　4.3.2 协整检验

　　4.3.3 误差修正模型（VECM）及其诊断检验

　　4.3.4 Granger 因果关系检验

　　4.3.5 脉冲响应函数

　　5 结论及政策建议

　　5.1 结论

　　5.2 政策建议

　　5.2.1 增加政府对农业的支持，提高农民收入水平

　　5.2.2 消除制度障碍，统一城乡劳动力市场

　　5.2.3 加快产业结构升级，大力发展现代服务业

　　5.2.4 增加农村人力资本投资，提高农村劳动生产率

　　致谢

　　参考文献