深圳市雨潮遭遇中AM和POT选样方法对比(6)
来源:水科学进展 作者:涂新军,杜奕良,陈晓宏
发布于:2017-06-19 共9076字
本文研究得出了雨潮遭遇设计更为安全的选样方法和联合重现期分析类型,并提供了两种雨潮设计组合值的选择方法。但在滨海城市短小河流防洪潮设计实践中,需结合河道行洪过程模拟及区域洪涝灾害风险管理要求,选择适宜的雨潮设计组合值。
参考文献:
[1] 方彬,郭生练,肖义,等。 年最大洪水两变量联合分布研究[J]. 水科学进展,2008,19( 4) : 505-511. ( FANG B,GUO S L,XIAO Y,et al. Annual maximum flood occurrence dates and magnitudes frequency analysis based on bivariate joint distribution [J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19( 4) : 505-511. ( in Chinese) )。
[2] 陈永勤,孙鹏,张强,等。 基于 Copula 的鄱阳湖流域水文干旱频率分析[J]. 自然灾害学报,2013,22( 1) : 75-84. ( CHEN YQ,SUN P,ZHANG Q,et al. Copula-based analysis of hydrological drought frequency in Poyang Lake basin[J]. Journal of NaturalDisasters,2013,22( 1) : 75-84. ( in Chinese) )。
[3] 刘曾美,陈子燊。 区间暴雨和外江洪水位遭遇组合的风险[J]. 水科学进展,2009,20( 5) : 619-625. ( LIU Z M,CHEN Z S.Risk study of the bivariate encounter of interzone rainstorm and flood level of the outer river [J]. Advances in Water Science,2009,20( 5) : 619-625. ( in Chinese) )。
[4] 谢华,罗强,黄介生。 基于三维 Copula 函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析[J]. 水科学进展,2012,23( 2) : 186-193. ( XIE H,LUO Q,HUANG J S. Synchronous asynchronous encounter analysis of multiple hydrologic regions based on 3D copula function[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23( 2) : 186-193. ( in Chinese) )。
[5] 谢华,冯晓波。 感潮河段洪潮遭遇概率研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2012,31( 1) : 54-57. ( XIE H,FENG X B. Flood and stormtide encounter analysis in tideway-comparison of multivariate hydrological probability models[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2012,31( 1) : 54-57. ( in Chinese) )。
[6] 刘曾美,覃光华,陈子燊,等。 感潮河段水位与上游洪水和河口潮位的关联性研究[J]. 水利学报,2013( 11) : 1278-1285.( LIU Z M,QIN G H,CHEN Z S,et al. Study on the correlation of the water level of the tidal river with upstream flood and estuarytide level[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013( 11) : 1278-1285. ( in Chinese) )。
[7] ZHENG F,WESTRA S,SISSON S A. Quantifying the dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,505( 21) : 172-187.
[8] LIAN J J,XU K,MA C. Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a casestudy of Fuzhou City,China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2013,9( 6) : 7475-7505.
[9] 武传号,黄国如,吴思远。 基于 Copula 函数的广州市短历时暴雨与潮位组合风险分析[J]. 水力发电学报,2014,33( 2) :33-40. ( WU C H,HUANG G R,WU S Y. Risk analysis of combinations of short duration rainstorm and tidal level in Guangzhoubased on Copula function[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2014,33( 2) : 33-40. ( in Chinese) )。
[10] XU K,MA C,LIAN J J,et al. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing en-vironment[J]. Plos One,2014,9( 10) : 1-11.
[11] CLAPS P,LAIO F. Can continuous streamflow data support flood frequency analysis? an alternative to the partial duration series ap-proach[J]. Water Resources Research,2003,39( 8) : 375-384.
[12] SALVADORI G,MICHELE C D,DURANTE F. On the return period and design in a multivariate framework[J]. Hydrology andEarth System Sciences,2011,15( 11) : 3293-3305.
[13] 许世远,王军,石纯,等。 沿海城市自然灾害风险研究[J]. 地理学报,2006,61( 2) : 127-138. ( XU S Y,WANG J,SHI C,et al. Research of the natural disaster risk on coastal cities[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61( 2) : 127-138. ( in Chinese) )[14] SALVADORI G,MICHELE C D. Frequency analysis via copulas: theoretical aspects and applications to hydrological events[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40( 12) : 229-244.
[15] MASSEY F J. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,2012,46( 253) : 68-78.
[16] DOBRIC J,SCHMID F. A goodness of fit test for copulas based on Rosenblatt's transformation[J]. Computation Statistics and DataAnalysis,2007,51( 9) : 4633-4642.
[17] GENEST C,REMILLARD B,BEAUDOIN D. Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study[J]. Insurance Math-ematic Economy,2009,44( 2) : 199-213.
[18] TU X J,SINGH V P,CHEN X H,et al. Uncertainty and variability in bivariate modeling of hydrological droughts[J]. StochasticEnvironmental Research and Risk Assessment,2016,30( 5) : 1317-1334.
[19] 黄强,陈子燊。 基于二次重现期的多变量洪水风险评估[J]. 湖泊科学,2015,27( 2) : 352-360. ( HUANG Q,CHEN Z S.Multivariate flood risk assessment based on the secondary return period[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences,2015,27( 2) : 352-360. ( inChinese) )。
[20] 李天元,郭生练,闫宝伟,等。 基于多变量联合分布推求设计洪水过程线的新方法[J]. 水力发电学报,2013,32( 3) : 10-14,38. ( LI T Y,GUO S L,YAN B W,et al. Derivative design flood hydrograph based on trivariate joint distribution[J]. Journalof Hydroelectric Engineering,2013,32( 3) : 10-14,38. ( in Chinese) )
作者单位:
原文出处:涂新军,杜奕良,陈晓宏,柴苑苑,卿颖. 滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J]. 水科学进展,2017,(01):49-58.
相关标签: