摘 要
经济的高速发展带来人民生活需求的改变，当前，在食品领域，人们对高蛋白食物的需求量日益加大。鱼类产品作为一种高蛋白产品，越来越多的出现在餐桌上，与此相关的渔业产业链也获得了长足的发展。有关鱼类资产的交易日趋频繁，鱼类生物资产的准确、可靠评估作为推动交易的“润滑剂”,在此领域的任何一个促进有效评估的理论及实务方面的研究进展，一直以来备受关注。然而，在当前的技术环境下，对于渔业生物资产乃至整个生物资产的评估领域的发展都处于相对滞后的阶段，价值类型研究不够系统、深入，评估方法匮乏、可靠性有待提高，缺乏有效的价值评估理论体系等，都是当今鱼类生物资产评估领域所存在的深刻问题，也是需要迫切解决的关键问题所在。
本课题就是在这样的背景下提出来的，欲通过对鱼类资产特殊性的研究，同时结合一般资产的价值评估的基本理论以及方法，构建出鱼类生物资产价值评估理论体系，弥补当前鱼类资产价值评估理论领域的空缺，为具体的评估实践提供理论支撑。
首先，根据当前的渔业经济领域的宏微观背景信息以及研究方向，对鱼类生物资产价值评估的研究现状进行了文献综述，当前，国内外在生物资产领域的研究主要集中在林木、果木、畜牧以及生物多样性问题上，并且大多数研究都集中于对其概念的界定以及对其特殊性的研究，具体到资产评估的研究主要是在方法上作一些实证的研究。具体到鱼类资产，国内外在该领域的研究文献少之又少，这主要是由渔业经济在国民经济中的劣势地位决定的。
其次，在进行综述的前提下，随着研究的深入，对于鱼类资产的理解更加深入，对于鱼类资产的风险的认识进一步加强，特别是受“獐子岛”事件的影响，对本课题的研究进行了深刻的反思，在评估鱼类资产价值的同时，是否应当将风险价值考虑进去？在后面的研究中，本课题的研究者着重对鱼类资产的风险价值进行了研究，从鱼类资产风险价值的特点到风险评估方法上进行了比较深入的研究。
在风险价值评估方法的选择上，本课题通过相关研究，最终确定选用 VaR 法来进行相关评估。首先，对 VaR 法的研究现状进行了相关的文献综述，发现 VaR 法适用于对于市场风险价值的评估。然后，研究了鱼类资产的风险特点，包括周期性、不可控性和极强的破坏性，但最终都能反映到市场风险中来，从而论证了 VaR 法在评估鱼类资产风险价值方面的适用性。最后，选取了 2010 年的环渤海地区的 20 家大菱鲆养殖企业的年度数据，进行了实证分析，得出环渤海地区的大菱鲆养殖企业的年度利润中有 60%处于风险之中，从而验证了在鱼类资产价值评估体系中引入风险价值的必要性。本选题只是论证了引入的必要性，在引入路径上面还需进一步的研究。
在论证了将风险价值引入到评估体系中去的必要性以后，本课题欲填补鱼类资产价值评估领域的空白，着手构建鱼类资产价值评估理论体系。根据一般价值评估理论体系构建的基本方式，从鱼类资产价值形成理论、价值评估指标体系的确立以及评估方法的选取三方面分别进行了研究。在研究鱼类资产价值形成理论的过程中，本课题借鉴一般资产价值形成理论，包括劳动价值论、效用价值论和均衡价值论，在此基础上引入了风险价值理论论，并结合鱼类资产自身的特殊性，主要表现为自然增殖性、生长的周期性、价值的不确定性以及外部性的特点，认为鱼类资产价值评估理论的选取上应当具备更多的灵活性，需要综合资产的类别、资产的存在状态、所处生长的周期来决定具体的价值理论的选取，任何单一的资产价值理论在鱼类资产的价值形成问题研究上都不可能解决其价值形成的所有具体的实际问题。在价值评估指标体系的确立上，秉持完备性原则、系统性原则、可靠性原则以及相关性原则。采用文献归纳法以及专家调查法，博采众长，最终确立出鱼类资产价值评估的指标体系。分养殖鱼类资产以及捕捞鱼类资产，从经济价值、社会价值和生态价值三个领域，共确立出 30 个可操作指标，并对各指标的含义及其求解作了相关说明以及对三类一级指标进行了权重赋值。最后为确立评估方法，由于研究精力以及时间的限制，本课题只就经济价值的评估方法进行了探讨。借用一般资产价值评估的基本方法，包括市场法、收益法与成本法，分别进行了探讨，分析了鱼类资产对各类方法的适应性问题。得出在存在活跃市场的情况下，市场法是评估的首选，活跃市场上的报价是最优评估值，但同时也指出这种最优一般只适用于消耗性鱼类生物资产。而对于消耗性鱼类资产，惯用的方法还有成本法。收益法作为一种面向未来的评估，与资产的会计定义在很大程度上相吻合，在评估生产性鱼类资产价值方面操作性极强。从而从价值理论、指标体系的确立以及评估方法三方面确立了鱼类生物资产价值评估的理论体系，指导具体的评估实践。
鱼类资产价值评估理论体系的构建，以及对鱼类资产风险价值引入的必要性论证，是对现有资产评估理论的补充与创新，能够更好的指导具体的评估实践，为助推我国渔业经济的发展，实现海洋强国的伟大梦想出一份力。
关键词：鱼类资产，价值评估，理论体系，VaR（风险价值）
ABSTRACT
The rapid development of economy bring people's lifedemand change, at present, in the field of food , people of high proteinfood demand increasing.As a high protein products, fish products appear inthe table more and more, the fishery industry chain and the related alsoobtained the considerable development. The relevant fish assetstransactions have become more frequent, accurate, and reliable assessmentof fish biological assets into promoting trade “lubricant”, it will beconcerned in research progress of any one to promote effective evaluationtheory and practice in this field. However, now it is relatively lag phase ofdevelopment for fishery biological assets and even the entire biologicalassets assessment of the value type field , which is not systematic andin-depth enough, lack of assessment method and the reliability needs tobe improved, the lack of effective assessment of the value of theory systemand so on, are deep problems field evaluation the fish biological assets,it isalso the key problem which need to be solved urgentlyThis project is given in this background, to through the research on thespecial fish assets, at the same time, combined with the basic theory andevaluation method of general assets value, constructs the fish biologicalassets value assessment theory system, to construct the current fish assetsvalue assessment theory field of vacancies, provide theoretical support forthe evaluation of the specific practice.
Firstly, based on the background information of this topic, researchstatus and research direction of biological assets value assessment offish.By round up the related literature , the research at home and abroad inthe field of biological assets mainly in the forest, fruit, livestock assets andbiodiversity issues, and most studies have focused on the definition of itsconcept and the research on its particularity, specific to the asset appraisalresearch is mainly to make some empirical studies in methods. Specific tothe fish assets, the domestic and foreign research literature in the field ofless and less, this is mainly decided by the inferior status of fisheryeconomy in the national economy .
Secondly, under the premise of conducting overview,with intensivestudy, learning more knowledge about the risks of fish assets, especiallyinfluenced by the “Deer Island” event, reflected the research, in theassessment of the value of the fish assets at the same time, whether it needto be introduced of venture worth? In later research, researches the subjectfocuses on the fish assets risk value, is studied from the fish assets riskvalue characteristics to the risk assessment method.
Select the VaR method to evaluate the hazard of the assets value offish. First of all, makes a literature review of related research status of VaRmethod, which is suitable to evaluate the risk of market . Then, study on therisk characteristics of fish assets, including periodic, controllable and highdamage, but eventually can reflect to the market risk, which demonstratesthe applicability of VaR method in risk evaluation of assets value of fish.
Finally, select the annual data of 20 turbot farming enterprises in 2010 theBohai ring area, to do case analysis, obtained the Bohai ring area turbotfarming enterprises annual profit in 60% at risk, which verified thenecessity of introducing the theory of value at risk assessment system infish assets value. This topic is just demonstrated the urgency to take intothe risk value, how to introduce is also need the effort of the researcher inthis field.
In demonstrates the necessity of the value at risk evaluation system tobe introduced into the future, this topic wants to fill up the blank of assetsvalue assessment areas, the project will construct the fish's assets valueassessment theory system. Following the basic mode of construction oftheoretical system to evaluate the general value selection, establishmenttheory, value evaluation indicators system and appraisal procedure isformed from the worth of the assets of three fishes are studied respectively.
In researching the value forming theory of fish asset, this paper profits fromthe general assets of worth formation theory, contain the theory of laborworth, utility value of wheel and the equilibrium theory of worth.On thisbasis, the introduction of the Theory of Value at Risk, combined the specialfish of their own assets, mainly for the natural proliferation, growth cycle,the worth of the unpredictable and external characteristics, think fish assetsvalue assessment theory of selection should have more flexibility, needcomprehensive asset categories, the existence of the assets, the growthcycle to determine the specific theory of value selection, any single assetvalue theory formed in the value of the asset value of fish to solve theformation of all the specific practical problems are impossible problemresearch on. In establish the value index hierarchy, relied on the principle ofcompleteness principle, systematic principle, reliable principle andrelativity principle. By adopting journals review and specialist investigationmethod, quote extensive from others' great views, finally established anindex system of evaluation of fish of the value of the assets. Sub culturedfish and fish fishing assets assets, from three aspects of economic value,social value and ecological value, were established 30 operational index,meaning and for each index and its solution for instructions and on threeclasses as well as indicators for the weight assignment. Finally, to makesure the estimate means, because the research effort and time limit, thispaper only discuss in the field of economy value. By use of the methods ofgeneral assets value, from the market approach, income approach and costapproach three basic methods are discussed in this paper, analyses theproblems of adaptability to various methods of fish assets. Obtained beingin enliven bazaar, the method have priority to value, price offer in enlivenbazaar , but also pointed out that the optimal generally applies only to theconsumption of fish biological assets. But for the consumption of fishassets, the usual method and cost method. The income method in theassessment of fish production operation of biological asset value is verystrong.And from three field of value theoretic, quota system and method toestablish construct fish assets value assessment theory system, guide theevaluation practice.
Fish assets value assessment theory system and demonstrates thenecessity to introduce fish assets risk value is the supplement and creationof existing assets evaluation theory,so as the better specific guidance to leadthe practice ,To boost the development of China's fishery economy, realizethe great dream of marine power out of a force.
KEYWORDS: fish assets,value assessment,system info,VaR （Value atRisk）
目 录
摘 要
ABSTRACT
第一章 引 言
1.1 问题的提出
1.1.1 选题背景
1.1.2 选题目的
1.1.3 选题意义
1.2 研究的内容与思路
1.2.1 研究的主要内容
1.2.2 论文的大体框架
1.2.3 研究方法
第二章 文献回顾
2.1 生物资产价值评估国内外研究现状
2.1.1 生物资产价值理论的研究现状
2.1.2 生物资产价值评估指标体系的确立的研究现状
2.1.3 生物资产价值评估方法的研究现状
2.2 国内外对于 VaR 风险价值评估法的研究状况
第三章 风险价值对价值评估理论体系构建的影响研究
3.1 鱼类资产风险概述
3.2 VAR 法在评估鱼类资产风险价值的可行性分析
3.2.1 鱼类资产风险特点研究
3.2.2 VaR 法的适用性分析
3.2.3 VaR 评估模型的建立
3.3 VaR 评估环渤海地区大菱鲆养殖风险的案例分析
3.3.1 数据来源及正态性分布检验
3.3.2 风险价值的计算与相关分析
3.3.3 实证研究的不足
第四章 鱼类生物资产价值评估理论体系的构建
4.1 资产价值形成理论研究
4.1.1 劳动价值论
4.1.2 效用价值论
4.1.3 均衡价值论
4.1.4 风险价值论
4.2 鱼类生物资产的特殊性对其价值形成的影响研究
4.3 鱼类生物资产价值形成理论研究--混合价值理论
4.4 鱼类资产价值评估指标体系的构建
4.4.1 指标体系构建的基本原则
4.4.2 指标体系构建的基本方法
4.4.3 鱼类生物资产价值评估指标体系的确立
4.5 鱼类生物资产价值评估的基本方法研究
4.5.1 市场法
4.5.2 鱼类生物资产价值评估的风险市场法研究
4.5.3 成本法
4.5.4 鱼类生物资产价值评估的风险成本法研究
4.5.5 收益法
4.5.6 鱼类生物资产价值评估的风险收益法研究
4.6 本章结语
第五章 结论、不足与展望
5.1 主要结论
5.2 创新点
5.3 研究展望
参考文献
致 谢
