河西地区县域经济差异探析

        摘 要：县域经济是国民经济中具有综合性和区域性特征的基本单元，开展县域经济方面的研究有助于实施国家发展战略，将有限的资源实现最优化配置。县域经济差异作为区域经济差异的一种特殊类型，是经济发展过程中的普遍现象，也是经济基础、发展质量及政府政策等因素在县域层面上的综合反映。实现县域经济的均衡、协调可持续发展有利于实现社会各方面效益的有机统一。河西地区作为丝绸之路经济带的黄金段，也作为甘肃省经济发展的重要贡献力量，近年经济整体发展速度虽然较快，但由于自然基础、资源禀赋等条件的差异，致使河西地区经济发展出现不均衡，既体现在五个市区之间，也体现在各县域之内，区域发展不平衡不利于实施区域规划，而且容易导致国家重点建设项目各自为政，致使所在区域地方经济之间以及项目之间脱节。
　　
　　基于上述背景，本文在研习县域经济、县域经济差异、区域经济协调发展等概念以及新古典区域均衡发展理论、平衡增长理论、不平衡增长理论等已有理论的基础上采用泰尔指数、主成分分析法对河西地区县域经济发展差异演变特征及各县域经济综合发展水平进行分析，并应用Arc-GIS软件对整个河西地区县域经济差异进行空间可视化表达，最后从自然资源因素、资本投入因素、产业结构因素、制度因素、区域金融发展因素五个方面选取可量化的指标，构建模型对影响河西地区县域经济发展差距的因素进行实证分析。

        通过对研究对象的分析，本文最后得出三个结论：
　　
　　1、河西地区县域经济总差异、区间差异和区内差异呈倒“U”型演变特征。总体差异的具体变化趋势可分为两个阶段：第一阶段，1993~2007 年，县域经济总差异不断扩大阶段，第二阶段：2007 年以后，泰尔指数变化总体上呈现出波动下降态势。2008~2010年，泰尔指数虽有所上升，但上升的幅度较小，2011~2013 年持续下降。区域间差异与总差异的变化趋势基本一致，区间差异是河西地区县域经济总差异的主要贡献者。
　　
　　2、河西地区县域经济综合差异主要表现在经济发展实力、动力以及活力三方面。经济发展水平综合得分低于区域平均水平的县区占了多数，处于区域经济的主导地位；在分项得分中，这 20 个县域之间的差距显着程度一次是：经济发展实力>经济发展动力>经济发展活力水平；经济综合发展水平较高的县域，其经济发展实力、动力和活力的水平却未必都高。运用主成分分析结果进行聚类分析，将河西地区县域经济分为四种发展类型：经济发达区、经济较发达区、经济欠发达区、经济不发达地区。仅有肃南县属于经济发达区，经济较发达地区包括有金川区、阿克塞县、嘉峪关市，经济欠发达地区包括：敦煌市、肃南县、玉门市、安西县、肃州区；古浪县、民乐县、山丹县、甘州区、金塔县、永昌县、民勤县、凉州区、天祝县、高台县、临泽县属于经济不发达地区。借助 GIS 软件做出县域经济发展差异的区域分布图后得出河西地区 20 个县域经济发展水平呈现出了西部县域经济综合发展水平高于东部、工矿区和牧区县域经济综合发展水平高于农区的区域分布特征。
　　
　　3、运用 SPPS 软件选取相关指标对影响河西地区县域经济发展差距的因素进行实证分析后得出：固定资产与经济发展呈正向关，提高固定资产的投资额会加速经济的发展，缩小各地区经济发展差距；产业结构变动度在 5%的水平上显着，系数也为正，说明产业结构变动度越大，经济发展水平会越高；财政支出占 GDP 的比重在 1%的水平上显着，系数为正，城乡居民储蓄存款也通过了显着性检验，与经济发展水平呈正向相关。
　　
　　关键词：县域经济；发展差异；影响因素；主成分分析；河西地区
　　
　　Summary：County economy is in the national economy has a basic unit of the comprehensive andregional characteristics, to develop the county economy research is helpful to implement thestrategy of national development, will be limited resources optimization allocation. Countyeconomy as the regional economic differences of a special type, is the common phenomenonin the process of economic development, is also the economic basis, the quality ofdevelopment, and government policy factors such as comprehensive reflection on the countylevel. To achieve the balance of the county economy, balanced and sustainable development isbeneficial to realize the organic unity of the social various aspects benefits.
　　
　　Hexi area as the silk road economic belt of the golden section, also as an importantcontribution to the economic development of gansu province power, fast in recent years, theregional economic development, but because of the difference of natural foundation,resources endowment, the economic development in hexi area appears imbalance, theimbalance manifests between the five urban areas, but also between each county, thisimbalance not conducive to the implementation of regional planning, and easy to cause thepatchwork of national key construction projects, and the area between the local economy andproject.
　　
　　Based on the above background, based on the differences in the study of county economy,county economy and regional economic coordinated development concept and new classicalregional balanced development theory, theory of balanced growth and unbalanced growththeory on the basis of existing theory, index, the factor analysis method of hexi area countyeconomic development difference evolution characteristics and the county comprehensiveeconomic development level is analyzed, and application of the Arc - GIS software for thewhole of the county economy in hexi area differences in spatial visualization expression,finally from natural resources, capital investment, industrial structure factor, system factorfour aspects: the selection of quantifiable indicators, build the model of influencing factors ofhexi area county economic development gap between the empirical analysis.
　　
　　1. The county economy in hexi area total difference, the difference of interval and areadifference is inverted “U” type evolution characteristics. The differences of general trends canbe divided into two stages: the first stage, the 1993~2007, the county economy expandingstage, the total difference in the second stage: after 2007, thayer generally presents thefluctuation in index changes.2008 ~2010, although thayer index has increased, but risingamplitude is small, 2011~2013 years continued to decline. Regional differences and thechange trend of total variance, range differences are the county economy in hexi area isalways the main contributor.
　　
　　2. The hexi area county comprehensive economic differences in economic developmentstrength, power and vitality. Economic development level is lower than the regional averagescores of the county accounted for the majority, in the regional economic dominance; Incomponent scores, the gap between the 20 counties significant degree a is: economicdevelopment strength > power > economic development vitality of economic developmentlevel; The county comprehensive economic development level is higher, power, power andvitality of its economic development level is not high. Using the principal component analysis,clustering analysis will develop the county economy in hexi area is divided into four types:economic developed area, economy is relatively developed area, economy owes thedeveloped area, economically underdeveloped areas. Only SuNa County belongs to theeconomic developed area, economy is relatively developed areas including jinchuan area, ax,jiayuguan city, county, economic less developed areas including:, SuNa County of dunhuangcity, yumen city, anxi county, the 'state; Gulang county, minle county, shandan, yongchang,minqin county, area, jinta county, liangzhou district, tianzhu county, gaotai county, linzecounty belongs to the economically underdeveloped areas. GIS software to make the countyeconomy development difference of regional distribution from 20 level of county economydevelopment in hexi area presented the west county comprehensive economic developmentlevel is higher than the east county comprehensive economic development level, industrialand mining areas, and pastoral areas is higher than the regional distribution characteristics ofthe farming community.
　　
　　3. Select the indexes passed the test of significance, and the coefficient is positive. UsingSPPS software selecting related index of influencing factors of hexi area county economicdevelopment gap after empirical analysis: fixed assets and economic development waspositively to close and improve the fixed assets investment will accelerate the development ofeconomy, narrow the gap between regional economic development; Degree of industrialstructure change to 5% significance level, coefficient is positive, also shows that the greaterthe change of industrial structure, economic development level is higher; Fiscal spending as ashare of GDP to 1% significance level, the coefficient is positive, and urban and ruralresidents savings also passed the test of significance, and was positively related to theeconomic development level.
　　
　　Key Words:County Economic;Regional Economic Disparities;Influence Factors;Principal Component Analysis;Hexi Region.

      目 录

摘 要.................................................................................................................................................. I
Summary........................................................................................................................................III
图 目 录....................................................................................................................................... VII
表 目 录......................................................................................................................................VIII
第一章 绪论.....................................................................................................................................1
一、研究背景与意义..............................................................................................................1
二、文献综述...........................................................................................................................2
(一)国外研究动态........................................................................................................2
（二）国内研究动态......................................................................................................3
（三）县域经济差异研究综述.....................................................................................5
三、研究思路与方法..............................................................................................................6
（一）研究思路..............................................................................................................6
（二）技术路线图..........................................................................................................6
（三）研究方法..............................................................................................................7
四、可能存在的创新点和不足之处.....................................................................................7
第二章 区域经济差异理论基础....................................................................................................9
一、区域经济均衡发展理论..................................................................................................9
（一）新古典区域均衡发展理论.................................................................................9
（二）发展经济学中的平衡增长理论........................................................................9
二、非均衡发展理论............................................................................................................10
（一）不平衡增长理论................................................................................................10
（二）循环累计因果理论........................................................................................... 11
（三）威廉姆逊的倒“U”型假说............................................................................11
（四）弗农的梯度推移理论.......................................................................................12
第三章 河西地区县域经济发展现状分析.................................................................................14
一、区域概况.........................................................................................................................14
二、县域经济发展概况........................................................................................................15
（一）各市经济发展概况...........................................................................................15
（二）县域经济发展概况...........................................................................................15
三、河西地区县域经济差异分析.......................................................................................19
（一）河西地区县域经济差异演变分析..................................................................19
（二）河西地区县域经济综合差异分析..................................................................21  
（三）河西地区县域经济发展差异的区域分布特征.............................................23
四、小结.................................................................................................................................24
第四章 河西地区县域经济差异的影响因素分析....................................................................26
一、河西地区县域经济差异的因素分析.......................................................................... 26
（一）自然资源因素....................................................................................................26
（二）资本投入因素....................................................................................................26
（三）产业结构因素....................................................................................................27
（四）制度因素............................................................................................................28
（五）区域金融发展因素...........................................................................................29
二、影响因素的模型分析......................................................................................................30
（一）变量的选取及说明...........................................................................................30
（二）模型建立及分析................................................................................................31
三、小结...................................................................................................................................33
第五章 研究结论与建议..............................................................................................................35
一、研究结论...........................................................................................................................35
二、政策建议...........................................................................................................................36
致 谢.................................................................................................................................38
参 考 文 献...........................................................................................................................39
作者简介.................................................................................................................................42
导师简介.................................................................................................................................43
原创性声明.............................................................................................................................44
学位论文版权认定和使用授权书.......................................................................................44