计划生育新政遇到的困境探析

    本篇论文目录导航：

【题目】计划生育新政遇到的困境探析
【第一章】影响计划生育新政的因素研究绪论
【第二章】生育决策理论
【3.1  3.2】受访者再生育意愿的特征分析
【3.3 - 3.6】受访者再生育意愿的影响因素分析
【第四章】计划生育新政的问题及原因分析
【第五章】计划生育新政的对策与建议
【参考文献】完善单独二孩政策的策略研究参考文献

　　目 录

　　中 文 摘 要

　　Abstract

　　1 绪 论

　　1.1 研究背景及研究意义

　　1.2 国内外研究综述

　　1.3 研究对象与方法

　　1.4 研究思路和框架

　　1.5 创新性与不足

　　2 相关概念和理论…

　　2.1 相关概念

　　2.2 生育决策理论

　　3 再生育意愿及其影响因素分析

　　3.1 调查数据的获取与变量选择

　　3.2 受访者再生育意愿的特征分析

　　3.3 受访者再生育意愿的影响因素分析

　　3.4 再生育意愿的影响因素建模

　　3.5 单独二孩政策实施后泰山区出生人口分析

　　3.6 结论

　　4 问题及原因分析

　　4.1 申请再生育高峰问题分析

　　4.2 再生育“遇冷”问题

　　4.3 出生人口性别比治理难问题分析

　　5 对策与建议

　　5.1 加大宣传力度，帮助群众合理安排再生育

　　5.2 加强孕前优生和医学指导，提高出生人口素质

　　5.3 加强出生人口性别比综合治理

　　5.4 加强计划生育基层组织网络、队伍建设和经费保障工作

　　5.5 推进计划生育依法行政和加强执法监督情况

　　5.6 探索新的人口计生管理机制，解决特殊群体生育管理难的问题

　　5.7 做好相关部门利益导向政策衔接、执法配合和信息共享等工作

　　5.8 吸取境外经验教训

　　参 考 文 献

　　致 谢
 

　　中 文 摘 要

　　2013 年 11 月，中共十八届三中全会决定启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策（以下简称“单独二孩”政策），政策实施后全国各地并未出现生育高峰。2015 年 10 月 29 日，党的十八届五中全会决定，全面实施一对夫妻可生育两个孩子政策（以下简称“全面二孩”政策），对生育生育进一步调整完善。国家在短短两年时间内对计划生育政策作出两次重大调整，主要是由我国目前人口老龄化问题、劳动力人口下降、出生人口性别比偏高等人口问题严重决定的。“单独二孩”政策和“全面二孩”政策（以下简称“计划生育新政”）的实施对我国经济发展、人口结构、劳动力供给问题起到积极作用的同时，也会带来诸如生育扎堆、后续教育、医疗配套等社会保障问题。人口政策调整首先影响的是“二孩”生育问题，包括计划生育新政实施影响的目标人群的“单独夫妻”和“非独生子女夫妻”的人口规模有多大，以及这些人到底有多少人想生育二孩，影响他们再生育意愿的因素到底有哪些？

　　本文以泰山区为例，对新政实施后的目标人群进行再生育意愿调查，分析他们的再生育意愿及其影响因素。统计分析表明，无论是“单独夫妻”还是“非独生子女夫妻”,再生育意愿相当（单独夫妻 64.79%,非独生子女夫妻 66.24%），但是再生育意愿均低于理想子女数（理想子女数是 2 个子女的 1773 人，79.20%）。受访者无论一胎是男孩还是女孩，二胎性别均更倾向于顺其自然，其次是女孩偏好大于男孩偏好；参考一孩性别后，二孩性别仍然是顺其自然占绝大多数，其次是儿女双全偏好明显。分析再生育意愿的影响因素显示年龄、职业背景以及现有子女年龄都对受访人群的再生育意愿产生显着影响。出生统计显示，“单独二孩”政策实施后，泰山区并未出现生育高峰，出生人口稳定，出生人口性别合理。同时，分析“单独二孩”政策实施后出现的问题及原因分析，并针对问题提出对策建议，为“全面二孩”政策的顺利实施提供参考。

　　关键词：单独二孩 全面二孩 再生育意愿 现实效应

　　Abstract

　　In November of 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of theCPC decided to start the implementation of the selective two-child policy, which refers tothe two-child fertility policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from asingle-child family （hereinafter referred to as “selective two-child” policy）。 After that, thereis not a baby boom across China. In 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CentralCommittee of the CPC decided again to exert the full implementation of the policy that amarried couple can have two children, that is the universal two-child policy （ hereinafterreferred to as “universal two-child” policy ） on October 29th to further improve thereproductive fertility of the whole nation. In two years, Chinese central government hasmade two major adjustments on the family planning policy. It is mainly caused by thecurrent aging population, shortage in the labor force, the high sex ratio at birth and otherserious population-related problems. These two adjustments policies will play an active rolein promoting Chinese economic development, adjusting population structure and tacklingproblems of labor supply. Meanwhile, other problems will also appear, such as the crowedfertility, the following education, health care, medical treatment and other social securityissues of the new generation. It is known that the policy adjustment will exert an impact onthe issue of “two children” fertility. In details, what is the size of target population under theinfluence of the implementation of the new family planning policy? How many of them willplan to give birth to the second child? What factors influence their reproductive willingness?

　　In this thesis, the writer takes Taishan District for example to investigate thereproductive willingness of the target population under the new family planning policy andanalyze its influential factors. According to the statistics, whether either or neither of onecouple is from a one-child family, their reproductive willingness is equal （separate couples64.79%, non-child couples 66.24） mutually. However, it is lower than those people withideal children number （1773 people assume it ideal to own two children is two children,with the reproductive willingness of 79.20%）。 Whether his or her first child is a boy or agirl, respondents are more prone to be rational at the gender of the second child. Besides,they show more preference for girls than boys. As reference to the gender of the first child,majorities of them are rational at the gender of the second child. Then, they obviously preferto have both a son and a daughter. After analysis, the writer finds that both the respondents'

　　ages, their career backgrounds and ages of their elder children have had a significant impacton the reproductive willingness. The birth statistics show that the baby boom does notexist in Taishan District after the implementation of “selective two-child” policy. And thenumber of new born population is increased steadily with a reasonable birth sex ratio. Also,the writer finds out existing problems, analyze the impacts on family planning of fulfillmentof “selective two-child” policy and propose some advice for the problems as a reference forthe smooth implementation of “ universal two-child” policy.

　　Keywords: selective two-child policy; universal two-child policy; reproductive willingness; real effects