摘 要
随着我国经济快速发展，国民收入分配出现明显的两极分化。近些年，在城乡居民收入比高居不下的同时，农村内部居民收入差距也在加速扩大，农民处于明显的收入严重低下的地位。经济快速发展的道路上出现如此尴尬的局面，很显然对未来经济、社会发展是非常不利的。导致我国农民收入低的原因众多，如农业的产业性特征、制度因素和政策因素不合理等等。然而，随着我国市场经济的进一步完善和成熟，市场机制以及与此相应的价格机制对农民收入的影响会越来越大，农产品价格以及农民劳动要素价格的高低将成为影响农民收入的非常重要或基础性的因素。
本文首先从理论出发，对国内外关于价格与收入的相关理论进行集中梳理，并对当前国内外关于农产品价格与农民收入的理论进行分析评述。其次，结合我国改革开放以来农产品价格和农民收入的历史数据，对两者的发展历程及现状特点进行描述分析。再次，基于均衡价格理论，分析农产品价格上涨与农民增收的相关性；横向对比美国、澳大利亚、中国、菲律宾、肯尼亚和布基纳法索六个国家，以及纵向对比我国各个发展阶段农产品价格和农民收入的变动情况；并以粮食为例，通过协整与误差修正模型定量分析农产品价格变动对农民收入的实际影响程度，从理论和实证两个方面严谨深入地论证了农产品价格上涨与农民增收之间具有正向相关关系。此外，笔者根据现阶段我国农产品价格与农民收入的发展现状对两者未来的发展趋势进行了预测，认为农民收入短期内仍会随着农产品价格绝对上涨，并且增速周期性波动扩大；但从长期来看，农民可能会由于农产品价格相对增速波动走低，而面临减收。最后，基于全文研究成果提出促进农产品价格相对合理上涨的对策建议，主要包括：保证农产品市场供给平稳和农产品价格大体稳定，防止“谷贱伤农”;降低农业生产成本，促进农产品价格相对上涨；改善农产品的供给结构，形成“物以稀为贵”.
关键词：农产品价格 相对上涨 农民收入
Abstract
With the rapid economic development of our country, the distribution of nationalincome is starting to polarize apparently. In recent years, when the income ratio ofurban and rural residents remains high, the income gap among rural residents is alsoexpanding increasingly and the income of farmers is in a seriously low position. Theappearance of such awkward situation on path of rapid economic development issignificantly unfavorable to economic and social development in future. Many factorslead to the low income of farmers, such as the industrial character of agriculture, theunreasonable regimen and policy and so on. However, with the perfection andmaturing of market-oriented economy in China, market mechanism andcorresponding price mechanism will play a more important role affecting the incomeof farmers, the price of agricultural products and the labor price of farmers willbecome the vital or fundamental factor in affecting farmers' income.
Starting from the theory, this paper firstly combs the related theory of price andincome both domestic and abroad, and reviews the theory of agricultural price andfarmers' income. Second, we descriptively analyze the development path, the currentsituation and characteristic of the agricultural price and farmers' income based ontheir historical data. Third, based on equilibrium price theory, this paper discusses thecorrelation between rising price of agricultural products and the income growth offarmers. Then we do a lateral comparison of agricultural price and farmers' incomeamong six countries: the United States, Australia, China, the Philippines, Kenya andBurkina Faso. And longitudinally compares the changes of agricultural price andfarmers' income of our country in different periods. Furthermore, take grain as anexample, analyze quantitatively the actual effects of price fluctuation on farmers'
income by using cointegration and error correction model. Therefore, we verifyrigorously and deeply that rising price of agricultural products and income growth offarmers are positively related from the theory and demonstration. Meanwhile, wemake forecast on the growing trend between agricultural price and farmers' incomeaccording to their status quo, and find out that in the short run farmers' income wouldincrease as the absolute price of agricultural products rise and the speed is expandingperiodically, while in the long run, farmers might face decreasing income as therelative rising speed of the agricultural price descends. Finally, based on the researchresults, this paper offers some policy suggestions to promote the reasonableincreasing of agricultural products relatively, which include ensuring the stablesupply of agricultural products and keeping the price at a reasonable level toprevent “Low grain price hurts the farmers”, reducing the agricultural production costto promote the relative rise of agricultural price and improving the supply structure ofagricultural products to accomplish “A thing is valued if it is rare”.
Key words: agricultural price farmers' income relatively increase
目 录
第 1 章 引言
1.1 选题依据
1.1.1 选题来源
1.1.2 选题意义
1.1.3 国内外研究动态
1.2 研究方法与结构安排
1.2.1 研究方法
1.2.2 技术路线
1.2.3 全文研究架构
1.3 创新与不足
1.3.1 研究特色与创新
1.3.2 不足之处
第 2 章 国内外关于农产品价格与农民收入相关性研究的理论综述
2.1 经典西方经济学理论关于价格与收入相关性的理论综述
2.1.1 以劳动价值论为基础的相关理论
2.1.2 以“庸俗”价值论为基础的相关理论
2.1.3 以均衡价格论为基础的相关理论
2.2 当前国内外关于农产品价格与农民收入相关性的理论综述
2.2.1 农产品价格上涨与农民增收正强相关
2.2.2 农产品价格上涨与农民增收正弱相关
2.2.3 农产品价格上涨与农民增收负相关
第 3 章 农民收入与农产品价格的基本概念及我国现阶段两者关系的基本概况
3.1 农民、农民收入和农产品价格的概念界定
3.1.1 农民
3.1.2 农民收入
3.1.3 农产品价格
3.2 我国农民收入与农产品价格的现状分析
3.2.1 改革开放以来我国农民收入与农产品价格的发展历程
3.2.2 现阶段我国农民收入与农产品价格的特点
第 4 章 农产品价格相对上涨对农民增收影响的理论分析与实证验证
4.1 农产品价格与农民收入的相关性
4.1.1 农产品价格与农民收入的基本关系
4.1.2 国际统计数据对农产品价格和农民收入相互关系的说明
4.2 现阶段影响我国农产品价格的主要因素
4.2.1 引起我国农产品整体价格上涨的主要原因
4.2.2 引起我国农产品价格波动增大的主要因素
4.3 我国农产品价格上涨与农民增收之间的相关性--以粮食为例
4.4 我国农产品价格对农民收入影响程度的实证验证
4.4.1 变量、模型及数据的选取
4.4.2 实证方法说明
4.4.3 实证分析
4.5 未来我国农产品价格与农民收入的发展趋势分析
4.5.1 未来我国农产品价格的发展趋势分析
4.5.2 未来我国农民收入发展趋势分析
第 5 章 结论与对策建议
5.1 结论
5.2 目前我国农产品价格及农业收入中存在的问题
5.3 促进农产品相对合理上涨的对策建议
5.3.1 保证农产品市场供给平稳和农产品价格的大体稳定，防止“谷贱伤农”
5.3.2 降低农业生产成本，促进农产品价格相对上涨
5.3.3 改善农产品供给结构，形成“物以稀为贵”
参考文献
致 谢
