摘 要
产业结构是一个国家或地区第一产业、第二产业和第三产业之间的比例关系，并通这一比例关系使生产要素在产业间形成不同的分配。产业结构体现了一个国家或地区的资源配置的状况。因此，产业结构的不同是经济发展水平不同的重要表现也是发展中国家和发达国家的重要区别。市场经济条件下，市场作为资源配置的主体可以依靠供需形成一国的产业结构。而由于市场失灵的存在，市场机制并不能自发的实现最优的产业结构。所以，产业结构的演进需要国家政策的引导和支持。税收政策作为国家调节宏观经济的重要手段，影响着劳动、资本和技术在产业间的流动，也因此成为了调节产业结构的主要方法。1994 年分税制度的实施形成了我国流转税体系分为营业税、增值税和消费税并行税制体系并将这一体系维持至今。它的建立促进了我国税收制度的制度化，增进了税收效率也促进了我国社会主义市场经济的发展。但是 22 年的发展中，我国经济已经有了巨大的发展和变化，产业结构不断优化而税收制度却基本没有改变。2015 年我国经济增长放缓，经济进入以低增速为主要表现的新常态，以粗放型牺牲环境为代价的经济增长方式逐渐转变为以要素推动的经济质量的提升。因此，产业结构的调整需求更为急迫。作为主要税收来源的营业税和增值税以产业范围进行划分。营业税的课税范围包括应税劳务、转让无形资产和销售不动产，增值税的课税范围包括有偿转让货物的所有权、提供的加工和修配劳务。由此可见，营业税的主要课税对象集中在第三产业和建筑业，增值税的课税对象大部分集中在第二产业。
通过对营业税和增值税的调整可以实现各产业收益率的变化进而利用产业之间的替代效应实现要素的合理分配和促进产业结构的高级化。2011 年 1 月 1 日至今，“营改增”在上海试点已进行了五年，“营改增”对上海产业结构的影响以及中小企业减负效应都对我国进一步行业扩围能否实现改变我国产业结构的任务具有重要的借鉴意义。本文通过税收对产业结构的基本理论分析和利用 VAR模型分析上海市营业税和增值税对产业结构的影响，结合上海市营业税改增值税的实践对我国进一步全国范围推行营业税改增值税的税制改革提供政策建议。
关键字：
营业税、增值税、产业结构、VAR 模型
Abstract
Industrial structure is the proportion of the primary industry, secondary industryand tertiary industry in a country or a region. Industrial structure reveals a country ora region's status of resource allocation by the distribution relationship of theproduction factor. Therefore, the industrial structure of different economicdevelopment level is one of the important performance and also the importantdifference between developing countries and developed countries. Under the marketeconomy, formation of a country's industrial structure depends on market supply anddemand. However, because of the existence of market failure, the market mechanismcannot spontaneously achieve the optimum industrial structure. So, the Advanced ofindustrial structure needs the guidance and the support of national policy. Tax policyas an important tool to adjust macroeconomic, affects the flow between labor, capitaland technology in the industry, thus become the main method of industrial structureadjustment. The reform of the tax system in 1994 degrees formed the turnover taxsystem in our country is divided into the business tax, value-added tax andconsumption tax parallel tax system and maintain the system ever since. Governmentsdegrees to set up to promote the institutionalization of the tax system in our country,improve the efficiency of tax and to promote the development of the socialist marketeconomy in our country. But in the 22 years of development, our country economyhas made great development, optimize industrial structure and the tax system is thebasic has not changed. In 2015 China's slowing economic growth, the economy intothe low growth as the main performance of the new normal, to sacrifice theenvironment at the expense of extensive economic growth way gradually intoelements to promote economic growth quality. The adjustment of industrial structureof demand is more urgent. Business tax and value-added tax as the main source of tax,business tax taxation scope of taxable services, transfer of intangible asset and sale ofreal estate. Taxation scope of VAT paid transfer of the ownership of the goods,provide processing and replacement services. Business tax, Therefore, is the mainobject of concentrated in the third industry and construction industry,VAT tax object iscentered largely in the second industry. Through adjustment of business tax andvalue-added tax can realize the change of industry yields then industry substitutioneffect between a reasonable distribution of the elements and the promotion ofindustrial structure of the fundamentals. Since The reform program to replace thebusiness tax with a value-added tax will be expanded nationwide on Aug 1 in pilotsectors of Shanghai industrial structure. The influence of the small and medium-sizedenterprises during the effect has changed to the realization of the rights of theexpansion of industry of our country further around the task of the industrial structureof our country has important significance. Therefore, this article through to the taxanalysis of the basic theory of industrial structure and the use of VAR model toanalyze the Shanghai business tax and value-added tax's influence on the industrialstructure, combined with the practice of Shanghai business tax VAT instead of ourcountry further pushing nationwide sales tax of value-added tax reform to providepolicy recommendations.
Key words:
business tax,value-added tax,industrial structure,VAR
目 录
第 1 章 绪论
1.1 选题背景及研究意义
1.1.1 选题背景
1.1.2 研究意义
1.2 中外研究现状
1.2.1 国外研究现状
1.2.2 国内研究现状
1.3 论文的研究思路及方法
1.4 主要的创新之处
第 2 章 税收对产业结构的影响分析
2.1 产业结构的概念及分类方法
2.2 我国产业结构的发展状况
2.2.1 我国产业结构的演进及现状
2.2.2 我国产业结构的主要问题
2.3 税收对产业结构的调节作用分析
2.3.1 税收对企业的影响
2.3.2 税收对需求的影响
2.3.3 税收对供给的影响
第 3 章 营业税增值税的关系
3.1 营业税与增值税的关系
3.2 营业税与增值税现状
3.3 营业税与增值税并存的弊端
3.4 营业税与增值税对产业结构调整的机制分析
第 4 章 上海市增值税、营业税与产业结构的相关性分析
4.1 VAR 模型理论
4.2 变量选择和数据说明
4.2.1 VAR 模型数据的平稳性检验
4.2.2 VAR 滞后阶数检验
4.2.3 协整检验
4.2.4 格兰杰检验
4.2.5 脉冲冲击分析
4.3 结论
第 5 章 “营改增”对上海市产业结构的影响
5.1 上海市“营改增”前产业结构状况
5.1.1 上海经济发展速度快、水平高
5.1.2 上海产业结构不断升级，第三产业增速加快
5.1.3 经济增长速度变慢，第三产业对经济增长贡献度增大
5.2 “营改增”上海试点方案安排
5.2.1 “营改增”试点行业范围
5.2.2 “营改增”税制安排
5.3 “营改增”方案对产业结构的影响
5.3.1 “营改增”对上海产业结构的影响
5.4 “1+6”行业试点模式全国推广对我国产业结构的影响
第 6 章 政策建议
6.1 进一步优化税制
6.2 扩大推广行业和范围
6.3 完善配套政策
结 论
参考文献
致 谢
