摘要
土地财政是我国经济发展过程中的特有产物，其在推动地方城镇化进程、完善基础设施建设等方面都做出了较多的贡献。但是随着地方政府对土地财政依赖程度的不断加深，也逐渐开始酝酿出较大的风险，特别是土地财政的金融风险问题已经成为一个备受关注的焦点话题。本文就针对这一主题展开了详细的讨论。
本文首先对土地财政的内涵进行了界定，认为土地财政的内容包括土地出让收入、与土地相关的税费、土地抵押融资三个方面。并且从内在动力、外部支持两个方面研究土地财政的成因。财税制度的驱动、土地管理制度的保证、晋升考核机制的激励为地方土地财政提供了内在动力；商业银行信贷资金为土地财政提供了外部的支持。同时也对本文所研究的金融风险进行界定，本文所研究的土地财政的金融风险主要是指与土地财政相关的商业银行信贷风险。其次，对土地财政金融风险的传导机制进行了阐述。土地财政行为推升了地价与房价，地价、房价的不断增长导致土地市场和房地产市场对银行信贷的需求不断增加，而银行放贷的依据又是土地和房屋的抵押价值。一旦地价、房价发生剧烈的调整和波动，将会集中引发银行的信贷危机，从而导致金融风险。此外，本文利用 2007-2016 年的我国 31 个省市的面板数据，构建了面板数据的联立方程模型，对土地财政、地价、房价、金融风险之间相互依存、相互影响的关系进行了实证检验。
最后，结合定性分析结果和实证分析结果，分别从改变土地财政现状、阻断土地财政通过地价传导金融风险的机制、阻断土地财政通过房价传导金融风险的机制三个角度为防范土地财政金融风险提出一些针对性的建议。
关键词：土地财政；金融风险；地价；房价
Abstract
Land finance is a special product in the process of economic development in China. Ithas made more contributions in promoting the process of local urbanization and improvingthe construction of infrastructure. However, with the deepening of the local government'sdependence on the land finance, it has gradually brewed a great risk, especially the financialrisk of the land finance. The problem has become a focus of concern. This article will focuson this topic in detail.
This paper first defines the connotation of land finance, and considers that the content ofland finance includes three aspects: land leasing income, land related tax and fee, landmortgage financing. And from the two aspects of internal motivation and external support, westudy the causes of land finance. The driving of the fiscal and tax system, the guarantee of theland management system and the encouragement of the promotion and assessment mechanismprovide the inner motivation for the local land finance; the credit support of the commercialbanks provides external support to the land finance. At the same time, the financial riskstudied in this paper is defined. The financial risk of the land finance mainly refers to thecredit risk of commercial banks related to the land finance. Secondly, the transmissionmechanism of financial risk in land finance is elaborated. Driven by the maximization of thelocal government's pursuit of land income, the land price and house price have been promotedby the land financial behavior, the increasing land price and house price have led to theincreasing demand for the bank credit in the land market and the real estate market, and thebank lending is based on the mortgage value of the land and the housing. Once the land priceand housing price undergo drastic adjustment and fluctuation, it will lead to the credit crisis ofbanks and lead to financial risks. In addition, using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities inChina for 2007-2016 years, a simultaneous equation model of panel data is constructed, andthe relationship between land finance, land price, house price and financial risk is tested.
Finally, based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, some pertinentsuggestions are put forward to prevent land financial and financial risks from three aspects:
changing the current situation of the land finance, blocking the mechanism of the land financethrough the land price through the financial risk, and blocking the mechanism of the landfinance through the housing price transmission of the financial risk.
Key Words: Land finance; Financial risk; Land price; Housing price
目录
第 1 章 引言.
1.1 研究背景及意义
1.1.1 研究背景.
1.1.2 研究意义.
1.2 研究内容及方法
1.2.1 研究内容.
1.2.2 研究方法.
1.3 本文的创新与不足
1.3.1 创新之处.
1.3.2 不足之处.
第 2 章 文献综述.
2.1 我国土地财政的内涵与成因相关文献综述
2.1.1 对土地财政内涵的研究.
2.1.2 对土地财政成因的研究.
2.2 我国土地财政的金融风险传导机制相关文献综述
2.2.1 对土地财政与地价关系的研究.
2.2.2 对地价与房价关系的研究.
2.2.3 对土地财政与房价关系的研究.
2.2.4 对土地财政风险的研究.
2.3 文献评述
第 3 章 我国土地财政金融风险的传导机制分析.
3.1 土地财政的内涵、成因与金融风险的界定
3.1.1 土地财政的内涵.
3.1.2 土地财政的成因.
3.1.3 金融风险的界定.
3.2 土地财政加剧金融风险作用机理
3.2.1 土地财政助推地价积累金融风险.
3.2.2 土地财政助推房价积累金融风险.
第 4 章 我国土地财政金融风险的实证分析.
4.1 模型设定、变量选取与数据来源
4.1.1 模型设定.
4.1.2 变量选取.
4.1.3 数据来源.
4.2 实证检验与结果
4.2.1 单位根检验.
4.2.2 面板联立方程的识别与估计方法的选择.
4.2.3 面板联立方程的实证检验结果.
4.3 实证结果分析
4.3.1 土地财政方程回归结果分析.
4.3.2 地价方程回归结果分析.
4.3.3 房价方程回归结果分析.
4.3.4 金融风险方程回归结果分析.
第 5 章 防范土地财政金融风险的对策研究.
5.1 改变土地财政现状
5.1.1 深化财政体制改革.
5.1.2 改革土地管理制度.
5.1.3 转变晋升考核机制.
5.2 阻断土地财政通过地价传导金融风险的机制
5.2.1 遏制开发商囤地行为.
5.2.2 拓宽地方政府融资渠道.
5.2.3 规范融资平台举债.
5.3 阻断土地财政通过房价传导金融风险的机制
5.3.1 加强房地产企业信贷管理.
5.3.2 规范个人住房贷款管理.
5.3.3 同步土地财政治理与房价调控.
结论.
参考文献.
